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Morning Joe

News/Business. Interviews with newsmakers and politicians; host Joe Scarborough. New.

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Us 28, Washington 14, Pennsylvania 12, Matt Lewis 8, America 8, Joe Sestak 8, Sam Stein 7, Pete 7, North Carolina 7, Maryland 7, Bp 7, Ocean City 7, Sarah Palin 6, John Heilemann 6, Chris Christie 5, Obama Administration 5, Palin 5, Harold Ford 5, Willie 5, Toomey 5,
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  MSNBC    Morning Joe    News/Business. Interviews with newsmakers  
   and politicians; host Joe Scarborough. New.  

    September 3, 2010
    6:00 - 9:00am EDT  

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you're right. we're not going to show any more "jersey shore" because it's dirty and trashy and it's low and no way to show kids how to solve costly and settle disputes. >> this is from pete green who writes being with our name sounds so similar i pick up when they mention pete's name wondering what i did now. at least now i won't be blamed for his mess-ups. >> pete, you won't. it's great to have you. give you more of a tribute coming up here on "morning joe" but we want to wish you the very best of luck as you head out to get that ph.d. in sweetish massage therapy. strike it not too hard but not too gentle. pete, talk to you a little bit.
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"morning joe" starts right now. ♪ riding the storm out riding the storm out ♪ >> welcome to "morning joe." we're covering hurricane earl up and down the east coast. you can see devil hills, north carolina, that is where the storm is right now. cape tatteras as well and it's moving up to the north to virginia, merchandise, and all the way up into the northeast later today. welcome to willie -- can i call it morning willie at this point? >> yeah. you've been here so long. >> joe and mika have one more day off. heading into the weekend, luckily, chris jansing is here to save us. >> as good as you get? sorry about that! >> we have a great panel with us. andrew ross sorkin. mike crowley is here from "time" magazine and joining us political reporter bob costa.
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aever also from washington, d.c., sam stein. the average age on the set right now, 17 years old. >> they asked where are the grown-ups. i'm it. >> we have a lot to talk about this morning but the headline, chris, hurricane earl. >> what a mess is out out there. hurricane earl is racing up the east coast after lashing eastern north carolina with severe rain and powerful winds this morning. for more on how the northeast is preparing for the storm we turn to the weather channel's julie martin who is in ocean city, maryland. good morning. >> good morning, chris. yeah, we're next here at ocean city, m.d. i don't know if you've seen the video from cape hatteras but they are getting battered pretty good down there. and expecting more of the same heading this way to mid to late morning in ocean city. i want to show you the surf right now. it is definitely up. we actually saw some swimmers out here this morning, some guys who were a little bit crazy trying to get out in the water
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here. rip current is a big issue here in ocean city over the busy labor day holiday. as far as the storm itself, winds are going to be up in the 20s. right now 20 sustained and up around that 30, 35 later on today. but it's probably not going to be enough to have any major impacts here other than some beach erosion and maybe some minor coastal flooding. so already maryland has issued a state of emergency. a lot of cities up and down the east coast are prepared for whatever earl may bring but, so far, so good here in ocean city. again, conditions are going to start deteriorating, though, about mid to late morning and the worst of it should be over by about 5:00 this evening so will give the tourists time to enjoy their labor day holiday. >> will they be able to enjoy the holiday? will there still be high surf warnings and problems into the water, say, into saturday? >> absolutely, chris. i can tell you that last weekend when hurricane danielle was about 500 miles offshore, this
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very beach, they had 500 rescues and one fatality. that hurricane was much farther offshore than earl will be. earl is 150 miles off the coast so we are expecting strong rip currents here each after earl passes. one of the problems is the weather here is going to be gorgeous over the weekend. blue skies, cooler temperatures, great beach weather, but those seas are still going to be really dangerous. >> julie martin live in ocean city, maryland, with a word to the wise. thank you. msnbc meteorologist bill karins has more. >> i think the big headline it hasn't been that bad on the outer banks. yes, they have tropical storm force winds and each a couple of hurricane gusts over cape hatter hatteras. we don't expect houses washed out to sea. a wave event and beach erosion so dangerous to swim in the beaches today and tomorrow down the east coast but we didn't see a devastating storm and it
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weakened from this time yesterday and no one complaining. a lot of heavy rain and saw the pictures out there from the outer banks where the worst of the storm is. the latest wind gusts 62 miles per hour right now on hatteras so still blowing good and still people probably losing power out there but they are used to big storms and gusty winds. this is the equivalent of a big nor'easter heading up the coast at this point. tropical storm warnings maryland, delaware coast and jersey shore and long island and hurricane warning for cape cod. the question is will cape cod get hit worse than the outer banks later on tonight? you can see the cloud cover from the storm now goes all the way up into massachusetts. when you walk outside today from boston down to d.c. or new york city and philly, those clouds you're looking at are associated with hurricane earl. the waves are going to build during the day. now 10-foot waves off the jersey shore and 18-foot waves off virginia beach. as far as the forecast path, we take the storm up towards cape cod tonight at about 11:00 to about midnight, that's when it will make its closest approach
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to nantucket. i drew a little line on there. only 30 miles offshore it's supposed to be. a slight shift to the west would bring the storm possibly even over cape cod so that is still our minor concern. it will only be a category 1 hurricane at that point so it wouldn't be extreme damage any ways. the rest of the forecast for your travel today, no problems in the middle of the country. just so everyone on the east coast also knows, it will bring some benefits, too. temperatures will be much cooler. the heat wave is over with today. i guess the bottom line, chris and willie and everyone else, this has not been a devastating storm. it's a glancing blow for the most part for the east coast and that is good news. >> indeed, bill. thank you very much. we will check in with you throughout the morning. we want to go outside to montauk where the beautiful people go for the holiday week sewn that is where we find mike seidel of the weather channel standing by. how sf looking there? >> chris, you would be the first one out here, in my eyes, okay? that's the way i feel about you! >> i'm not even a regular on the
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show and he he is sucking up. what is the forecast? >> let's show you what we have going for us this morning. another stellar sunrise. now we have some clouds that have rolled in ahead of earl and finally getting something from earl because the past two days we've talked to you and it's been gorgeous. look at that sunrise. look at that red and orange color. the sun back-lighting that secondary mid level atlo cumulus deck and stratus thrown in there for good measure so a sign of things to come. clouds rolling in. the waves have been rolling in all night now. the buoy south of fire island reporting 6 to 8-footers and ramp be up above 10-footers. a lot of beach erosion. the winds will pick up. right now believe it or not the winds are calm. you go down to ocean city, maryland, gusts 30 to 45 miles an hour. late this morning and early this afternoon, winds ramp up and rain move in. i think we will be far enough east we get rainfall. whether we see a lot of rain in new york city remains to be seen.
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then the worst of the weather mid afternoon till about midnight tonight. winds could gust 40 to 50 miles an hour. here comes a nice wave. oh, that feels good this morning. water temperatures in the low 70s. and wind gusts 40 to 50 miles an hour should not cause a lot of issues with power but the power company is staging trucks out here in the hamptons to be on the safe side. beaches are closed for now, for today. reassess tomorrow. the ferry service to fire island shuts down at 3:00 and the east end of long island railroad has discontinued service out here. the last train went back to new york a little after 5:30 this morning. i talked to a "the new york times" crew doing a feature piece for the paper tomorrow and rode out on the last train and they said there were only 20 people on the train. a wait and see and have that 10 to 12-hour window of rough weather but as bill karins said, a glancing blow here at montauk
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because we are not as close to the storm at hatteras and it weakens as it goes up the east coast today. >> did i hear you say "the new york times" fled from the story? >> no. i met the reporter and the photographer. they rode the last train out of penn station here. >> they are going into the storm? >> no. they came out here at -- >> their homes is in the hamptons. >> they came out here 12:39 the last train from hamptons and now they are going back. they are doing a feature on the last people coming out and the people going back towards the city, i was told, tomorrow morning's edition. a little feature piece. they had a photographer out here so we will see how that looks tomorrow morning. >> that is one of the most gorgeous scenes i have ever seen and you got to love on the clam diggers. >> some people are calling them capris this morning. >> are those capris or clam did he goers? >> i rolled them up.
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>> looking good, mike. >> thank you very much, willie. the obama administration is stressing a second stimulus package not part of the plan for new measures aimed at boosting the nation's economy after ongoing -- outstanding white house chief economist chris steen romer in a farewell speech this week. robert gibbs ruled out another stimulus adding that the white house would continue to take steps that are, quote, targeted in fats nature to help continue the recovery. >> having been here since the beginning, there is an issue that the president has spent more time on than the economy than on the economic recovery, than on financial stability, than on housing, than on -- i don't think there is any doubt about that. >> so bob, the white house saying no second stimulus. the truth is it's not just politically possible, is it? >> of course, not. the white house realizing after
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two years of heavy spending by the obama administration it's time to stop. "the wall street journal" had it right today. move toward tax cuts, not spending. >> the president in his prime time address, the president wanted to turn the page from iraq and time to on focus our time and resources on the economy. what does that mean? what are they going to talk about and start doing? >> they got to start talking about some of the successes that they have had however limited they are. obviously, there has been a host of distractions this summer. it's been the mosque story and bp oil spill. at each point in time they want to talk about the economy and it hasn't happened. so i think from labor day until the end of elections they got to make a big push. the problem is the arsenal is pretty weak. they don't have much else to do legitimately so job creation is a real struggle for them. >> what are they saying on wall street? >> payroll tax holiday is what they are saying. >> that is the answer? >> if you want to get jobs going, you have a payroll tax
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holiday. >> what is that? >> you're not going to tax the payroll and if you're a corporation -- >> temporarily? >> temporarily and if you're a corporation that means you may be more more inclined to hire more people. the question is it sustainable? do they get caught out six months from now when the holiday, so to speak, is no longer in effect. and that is is the issue. my colleague who doesn't always agree with me, paul krugman of "the new york times" saying you need a another stimulus. i don't think this debate is completely over just yet in terms of what we throw real money at the problem or whether we do it through these targeted tax issues. >> you think despite the fact the white house has said repeatedly -- >> i think it's over in the context we're not going to hear about real stimulus coming from the white house yet but i think at any rate we're going, unfortunately, i hate to say it, i worry we may be actually talking about needing stimulus
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and really talking stimulus maybe, i don't know, six months from now. but that is just a pessimistic 6:00 a.m. view from me. >> clearly, what the white house and most of the economists there like romer would like to do is eject more money into the economy. i think that is the consensus among the economic advisers and the circle of economists they draw. the reality you can't get that through the congress. they tried and tried and keep hitting that roadblock and it's not shrinking in november. i think the reality is as they see that the economy may not have the momentum to get out of this ditch on its own and continue a recovery that becomes robust the question is how else can you do it with republican votes? the one way to do is by some kind of tax cuts. now, the issue is that the white house has never going to agree to the basic tax ideas the republicans have which they say are slanted toward the rich and not stimulate the economy but we are, i think, seeing the debate coalesce around targeted tax cuts. the democrats can bite the bullet and sign on to and get republican votes and that is where you might get consensus
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and might have more government intervention which, hopefully, gets the economy moving again. that is their best bet. >> bob, as we turn the corner out of the labor day weekend and focusing on midterm elections and bush tax cuts and expiration at the end of the year is a central issue. how does that fight play out some. >> i think when you look at the consensus maybe in the white house, you have the obama administration thinking we need more stimulus spending but that word is toxic to a lot of democrats. if you're a house democrat trying to run and get re-elected that year that word stimulus on the trail is toxic and you don't want to bring that up. i think pelosi would be smart and reed would be smart to work with obama to have some kind of holiday or have a narrative that can build around tax cuts. they may not want to go to the full extent of the gop agenda but they have to do something to say they have adapted to this anti-spending mood that is out there. >> it is about the message, isn't it? nothing is going happen, whatever it is, that is going to change the economy between now and november. >> no. not substantially.
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you're not going to really be able to get us moving in a fast pace. you're not going to have anything on the scale of the stimulus they did in early '09. to some degree i think it could be symbolic the white house did something, might a way we're trying everything. i think one concern the white house has they get filibustered in the senate but voters aren't paying attention who is blocking what but they see obama is not fixing things. the one thing i could see they might like something like a payroll tax holiday or tax cut to take to voters and campaign on. >> you got to wonder, though. i mean, the message that is coming out of the financial team, you got christine yeah romer going away with this speech everybody said was depressing. she said we never saw it coming and with he could be in for a long term high nimt. >> he said we failed to recognize the vulnerability and weaknesses. romer said we fail to see it coming. nothing something that inspires confidence in the economic team. >> the one thing i would suggest
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might spur the economy is the election itself. there seems to be so much uncertainty what is going to happen over the next couple of months and what is going to happen ultimately in washington. there's so many business people that say we're not really sure what the rules are going to be, what is going to happen. i think there is some sense that if we could get some certainty around the elections. if the republicans win, what does that mean? if the democrats win, what does that mean? i think just that, just knowing the answer may actually spur people to make investments they otherwise might be holding back on. >> on the same token, sam stein, we get jobs numbers in about two hours and 15 minutes from now that likely will not be good. >> they will not be good. >> fair to say, sam? >> they are going to stink. >> thank you for putting it that way. how did the white house brace for that? how do they spin it, if they can? >> i mean, this is the toughest spin there is, right? to say what we have done has prevented much further calamity. the truth of the matter it has.
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look at independent economists who say unemployment would be i think at 11.5% if not for the stimulus. you have to convince the voters that, thank god we were here and spent all this huge amount of money because it could be a look at worse but nobody wants to hear that if they are struggling to pay their mortgage or looking for a job. that gets down to why the white house is in trouble, how do you convince people who are really suffering that things could have been worse? >> yeah. >> the bumper sticker has to say we suck last, right? that is the issue. >> that is a winner. >> that is a campaign issue. >> that's a winner in the fall. when we come back, an exclusive first look at the politico playbook including revealing poll making front page news this morning. also new "morning joe" midterm exam. our all-star panel discusses which key players could prove to be game changers as we head into november. later, don't miss "the week in review." it includes the republican young guns and a major update on the
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let's take a look at the morning papers. "the boston globe" hurricane earl expected to pass near cape cod and bringing strong winds overnight tonight. >> "the new york times" a dramatic shift from two years ago fewer voters see themselves as democrats. the economic reality of a weak job market has taken a toll on their loyalties. "the washington post" two months before the november elections the white house seriously weighing a business of tax breaks potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars aimed at boosting jobs. "the washington times" with interest rates near zero and the fed owning a large share of the mortgage and treasury securities markets many fear the central bank may be out of ammunition to the economic take a serious turn for the worse? for the first time since the oil spill visitors are heading back to pensacola beach. good news. nearly all hotel rooms are sold out for the labor day weekend. >> great news. >> we love to hear that because
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the beaches weren't really damage. it was just the perception. >> you have no idea. >> i know where he is, undisclosed location. >> is it a bunker underground some. >> it might be to escape us. with us is politico executive editor jim vandehei. i know you guys are looking at this new gallup poll giving insight why voters are choosing to go republican. fill us in. >> someone on your panel i heard in the last segment say the republican message maybe we suck but we suck less than democrats. we all laugh at that, but it's actually a pretty effective political strategy in this environment because there is a new gallup poll reaffirms everything we've seen in other polling. a lot of people are voting for republicans as a protest against the democrats. as opposed to for republicans. in this, it usually happens when you have a big turnover in
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congress. look back at 2006. it's not democrats offered this amazing agenda that had electrified the voters. in fact, a lot of people are voting against republicans because of the scandaling, because of the spending. in 1994 when republicans won back the house, you know, democrats had control of the place for 40 some years. and they had had had a couple of very unpopular votes and basically there was a repudiation of democrats not necessarily this wild embrace of a contract with americans. republicans are unlikely to do much in terms of detailing policy in the next couple of months because they know all they have to do is essentially run out the clock and not do anything to completely embarrass themselves in individual races and they could do better than anyone thought they could a couple of months ago. >> bob, does that sound right to you? the cliche is the republican party is the party of no, they have no ideas but maybe that is by design? >> it's just the friday before labor day. young guns will you come with their policies. >> boom. >> boom. the senate you have a lot of young candidates, fresh candidates in the senate and they will come out policy agenda
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in september and october and really make a push. they want to coast on the tea party wave but at the same time every republican i talked to in the house and senate behind the scenes want to bring forward new policy ideas and the democrats may spin it and say they stink but the republicans i think are serious about offering an agenda. >> should the democrats -- >> i will bet awe shiny quarter when that agenda comes out it's not as specific as people had hoped that it would be. i don't think there is going to be anything in there that people will say, wow, that's a bold new idea that we have not heard from republicans befo. because there is real disagreement in the republican leadership of a house specifically they should on issues like social security or anything else that democrats could use against them. i do think there will be more specifity than we see today but those hoping for real detailed policy prescriptions, i think they will be a little bit disappointed. >> jim, i want to ask you steve ratner a new book coming out an account of the obama's
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administration account of the auto industry. >> this book not game change but i think it's the first insider account. he was a car czar and there when they were talking about the bailouts. a lot of intrigue written about it among the economic team, in particular, the white house is pushing back last night against this passage that the huffington post had reported about yesterday where rahm emanuel says f the unions, f the autoworkers in one of these meetings. the last thing the white house wants is this perception it doesn't take the union seriously or care a lot about what the unions are going to do because the unions are about to spend 40 plus million to help democratic candidates and already a little ticked off for the administration for not doing car checks and other issues and pushing against that last night. i will say that language is most people who know rahm are familiar with him using so i don't think it's necessarily a slight against the uaw. it might even be a compliment. >> not a shocker. andrew, what will history say
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about the auto bailouts? . one, they worked and, b, they were virtually illegal in terms they went about cramming this down on the company. on chrysler and gm. i think all in all, it worked and i think steve's book is going to be pretty interesting. yot i don't think anyone is coming oof the book for being inaccurate. i think there is some passages i've heard about that haven't come out yet that i think we will be talking about. >> auto bailouts are basically a success story that is not really told and they are not doing a good a job they could of explaining it but it's washed away by the larger economic picture. >> they tried and it was a one-day story and went to the plant and talked about it. coming up, joe sestak of pennsylvania and eugene robinson the "the washington post" and moderator of "meet the press," david gregory. plus another live report on hurricane earl as it makes its way up the east coast. we will be right back.
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♪ welcome back to "morning joe." no one has this storm covered like msnbc. >> four cameras. >> who did -- residents bracing for powerful gusts and driving rain you can see from hurricane early morning. nbc kristen dahlgren is out there bearing the brunt of the storm. how are things going out there this morning? good morning. >> haes good morning. i won't bore you with talk of my fingers here. right now we're getting the worst of what we have seen so far. the center of earl kind of passing by off the coast here so i'll step out of the way so you can see.
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because this rain has just been coming down sideways like this for hours now. and then now that we're getting a little more light, you can see the ocean back there. it is just punishing the beach. those waves really pounding and they have been like that for some time so i wouldn't be surprised if we see some pretty significant beach erosion as we do get out there and get more light this morning. officials say here going to be going out now that it's getting lighter and doing a little more damage assessment and also the coast guard. over the outer banks we are trying to get an aerial damage to see if there is any damage. they say they have search and rescue choppers ready to go out in case anyone has gotten into trouble and hoping that is not the case. that's why they had the mandatory evacuations in place along the northern outer banks and mandatory evacuation for all visitors. we saw those of people leaving the area but an awful a lot of people did stay and ride out the storm.
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although this is pushing wind and rain they feeling very lucky that this stayed offshore and that it weakened some and it wasn't as bad as they had expected at one point that it could be. >> kristen dahlgren, you are a trooper. thank you. also this morning oo fire on board another oil platform in the gulf of mexico is raising new questions about the safety of the nation's offshore wells. unlike the bp crisis, officials say no one was killed and no crude leaked into the water. 13 workers did have to jump into the gulf waters to escape the fire. all were rescued. the cause of that fire remains under investigation. in the meantime, this morning's "the new york times" reports that bp is warning congress against passing legislation warning congress against passing legislation that bars the oil giant from getting new offshore drilling permits. if that happens, bp says it may not have the money to pay for
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all of the damages caused by its spill in the gulf. according to the times, bp says a ban would put in danger restoration efforts that officials want b approximate, to voluntarily support. despite the report bp executives insist they have not backed away from their commitment to set aside $20 billion for those affected by the gulf disaster. i'm a little confused about those seemingly conflicting statements. >> what is going on here? it sounds like they are putting a gun to our head. if you don't let us keep doing what we're doing, we -- >> congress, obviously, wants to shut down their opportunities to keep drilling. they say their business plan means they have to keep drilling if they are going to keep making money. if you do the math, they don't necessarily have to keep drilling or at least immediately. if you told them they could never, by the way, drill again in the gulf coast, they actually might have a problem. that is a legitimate concern. but nobody is saying that. but in the immediate turn, the
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idea they can pay this $20 billion they have that on hand at this point. i think they are overstating the case because quite frankly, they want to do business. the issue are we going to let anybody drill in the gulf and what does that mean to the economy down there and what does it mean to the oil industry and energy policy and everything else. i think there still is a consensus that i may lose around this table that we do need at some level to consider still drilling down there simply because the math, it is true, the math doesn't add. if you don't keep drilling, at some point, oil will get much more expensive. >> this is a political issue, mike. >> as the economy continues to sputter, moratoriums on drilling is going to hurt that region and people are desperate for jobs down there. that is a big industry. i think people on the coast and who are not in the region don't appreciate the economic livelihoods people draw from the oil industry down there.
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so you may have an irony if it remains unclear, i could see but if the environmental damage of the bp spill is overstated and now it looks like it's not so bad it looks like the calamity for a lot of people is going to be that oil drilling is put on hold, a lot of people are out of these jobs for a long period of time as we kind of sort out what happened and what should we do. at a moment in the national economy like this, that is really terrible for those folks. i think increase crease increase will go -- take a look at the livelihood of these people who have jobs in these populations. >> an analyst says we would lose more money by doing the moratorium than what happened already. if you see that we -- that we, the taxpayer, the government may have done a greater disservice economically to that region if bp is able to pay back the $20
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billion or not. >> i wonder about the strategy spending, what did we talk about yesterday? tens of millions of dollars on these commercials. >> $500 million a week. >> around this table, we agree the commercials are pretty good but then you have them threatening congress and, at the same time, if you remember, tony hayward, not the most beloved man in america, saying i don't have time to testify before congress about lockerbie because i'm too busy in siberia. >> the yacht racing eats up a lot of time. >> yeah. you wonder about their public relation strategy if there is not a little bit of a disconnect. >> it's not pretty. let's turn to sports. cc sabathia looking for his 19th win yesterday afternoon over oakland a's in new york city. first inning coco crisp with a weak swing at a cc sabathia fastball. cc got help from curtis granderson. in the sixth, he hits a solo home run and puts yankees up 2-0.
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the any vex inning very next inning, how about a two-run shot for granderson. fanning. last day of preseason football before the nfl regular season begins next thursday, the game on nbc. vikings and steelers. last night the broncos and vikings. brett favre getting the night off. tim tebow might wish he had the night off. he fumbles a snap here and picked up by the vikings aaron henderson who runs it in for the touchdown. on the very next possession, tebow rockets a pass into double coverage. this is a knock on him. can he throw in the nfl? picked off by the vikings. not a great night for tebow. vikings won the game. last night the first night of college football. utah in a tight game at home against pitt looking to extend its 17-game win streak. check this out. in the fourth quarter, three seconds left in the game. pitt looking to tile the game with a 30-yard field goal. looks like the kicker dan
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hutchence nails it but the utah coach called a time-out before the kick. here is the second kick. hutchence misses wide. utah starts to celebrate but get this. their own coach had called time-out again right before so they would have won the game. now he gets one more chance. hutchence hits it on the third try sending the game to overtime tying it up but in overtime, utah hangs on to win. a 21-yard field goal here. 27-24, utah has won 18 consecutive games. to tennis. remember this shot by roger federer earlier this week at the u.s. open? he goes back on a lob. >> unbelievable. >> hits a winner. not just gets the back between his legs but hits a winner between his legs. nothing you can do about that. well, yesterday, fellow tennis star novak djokovic had a chance to do the same but the shot goes over his head. he thought about going between the legs. didn't do it. instead, he hits a pretty nice return on the backhand.
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the best part about this shot, though, was his explanation after the match. >> everybody is yelling at me. hit the fed shot, hit the tweener and you hit an unbelievable backhand. do you have that tweener shot between your legs? >> no, i have something else between my legs! don't worry. ly not show it to you tonight. >> good answer! he didn't have room to return. coming up next, howard dean, harold ford jr. and john heilemann take the "morning joe" midterm exam and discuss which key players will have the best impact on the november elections. later, it's the "week in review." find out which of these stories will make the cut. you better believe the smoking baby is in there. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ now the healing power of touch just got more powerful. introducing precise from the makers of tylenol.
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time now for the "morning joe" midterm exam. our ongoing discussion with poe lit cam insiders on the key issues that will shape the november elections. we sat down with john heilemann and harold ford jr. and former governor of vermont and former dnc chair howard dean. >> if republicans take control of congress this fall, a lot of people with going to be looking at republican leaders trying to figure out what is going to happen two years from now. who are the republican leaders? harold ford, if republicans take control of congress, who emerges as the national figure? sarah palin, newt gingrich, mitt romney? >> not who he wishes emerges. >> who will emerge some. >> if they -- understand, if the republicans win the house, that means at least 39 republicans have to win. so let's say you have 39 to 40 republicans win. much like your class in '94, i
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think you will have some faces from that class become leaders in the country and -- no, no, i understand but they -- their message may be attract what the national leader has to rally around. i still believe, as i sit back as a democrat and thinking to help reelect this president the person who concerns me mow is chris christhai. >> there you go. >> he has put forward a lot of grease. i don't agree with what he has put forward but he has stuck to them. he is not mean and his position on culture center here in new york not only reasonable but it's right. he's the kind of republican who might be able to unite different wings of the party. sarah palin, i don't care what anybody around this table says, this lady is running for president. she will be formidable. i think pat buchanan was right when he said if you have a crowded fill of a romney and huckabee and palin, but palin is
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a formidable candidate but as intellectual or something looking at this, chris christie scares me a little bit. >> i think he is the one. he's a real guy. >> i don't think sarah palin gets it. i think even if she runs in the republican primary, i think when her message is less scripted to a line on facebook here or a speech at a rally there she is spontaneously gusts. >> i'll give you another name. >> i don't know. >> in. >> if meg whitman wins the republican, a woman, a woman who has gender appeal and a grown-up, a serious person, ran a huge company now the governor of california. i don't mean necessarily she run for president immediately but she will be a big voice in the republican party and part of an important trend for the party. >> interesting. >> speaking of grown-ups.
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haley barbour. i've said before, i don't think he matches up well but here's a guy that will kick around republicans that have litmus tests. he believes in the big ten. i'm wondering, governor dean, what do you think about former governor haley barbour? does he have a shot at winning the republican nomination? >> he might. he's probably the smartest guy running and some smart people. you haven't talked about many of the smart people in the race but there are quite some smart people on the other side. >> where are you from? >> wow. >> from vermont? you were such an elitiselitist! >> i think haley is a bright guy and knows what he is talking about and running the party which i'm, of course, partial to. he knows what is going on. the problem with haley barbour he presents himself as a good ole boy and i think that is probably great in mississippi. it probably is not so good in some of the midwestern states
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that you have to win. he is bright and understands politics better than anybody else who is being talked about. >> what is your talk take on chris christie? >> it's too early. one of the classic things about the republican party you have to wait your turn. >> yeah. >> i would agree with all of the things you said. i think he is making some really tough decisions. he comes across as a guy who is not an unreasonable social right winger but i think it's the republican party is not the place for big insurgents. mike huckabee came from nowhere and didn't win the iowa primaries didn't get much further than that. i don't know what they do if they didn't do that. i think it would be really exciting but i don't think they would win. >> governor dean is right. mitt romney continues to be a weak establishment candidate. and that makes it possible for a bunch of these guys who would normally not be next in line to maybe leapfrog over the tradition and get in there.
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>> be careful. a year and a half ago, barack obama could walk on water. a year and a half from now he may be walking on water again. you know these things can change so quickly. >> john heilemann and harold ford jr., howard dean, thank you all very much. we will be right back. ♪ [ male announcer ] at ge capital, we're out there every day with clients like jetblue -- financing their fleet, sharing our expertise, and working with people who are changing the face of business in america. after 25 years in the aviation business, i kind of feel like if you're not having fun at what you do, then you've got the wrong job. my landing was better than yours. no, it wasn't. yes, it was. was not. . t was. what do you think? take one of the big ones out? nah. thanks. i got the idea from general mills big g cereals.
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♪ so you had a major hurricane this week and middle east peace talks in washington and oh, by the way, the end of the iraq war. important stories, granted, but not quite important enough to make our top three stories of the week. >> because they -- >> don't get in my face. >> do not! >> at number three, jersey fresh. >> you [ bleep ] [ bleep ]. you mother [ bleep ]. >> while president obama worked this week to bring peace to the middle east, the two sides in the intractable conflict between teresa and danielle of the "real housewives of new jersey" appeared farther apart than ever. >> you pig! she's a [ bleep ]! >> teresa. >> a piece of garbage. she is a [ bleep ] [ bleep ]. >> a reunion show meant to serve as a safe place for the healing to began served only to bring
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hostility. in other reality tv news out of the garden state. >> stop! stop! >> snooki boyfriend of two weeks proposed to her by going shirtless and on bended knee on the cover of "steppin' out" the way every little girl dreams it happen. at number two, the smoking baby kicks the habit. child welfare officials in indonesia announced this week the 2-year-old baby who became fakeus around the world for smoking two packs a day had quit after weeks of therapy. the toddler's father taught his son to smoke months ago to calm the boy down like a tobacco binky and the cigarettes behind
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him, the next challenge is kidding the kid off the sauce. the number one story of the week. >> together, they are the young guns! >> in an insult to amelia estevez and kiever sutherland and diamond phillips, three young republicans dubbed themselves as the young guns. it has congressman cantor and mccarthy and ryland. at least one former republican young gun was not inspired to saddle up and ride. >> that is like pure cheese! get the crackers out here. >> laugh it up, scarborough. there is a new sheriff in town. three of them.
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>> a yu generation of conservative leaders. >> young guns! >> they are the young gun. bob costa, we joke, but let's talk about the fall briefly. how does this all shake out in your eyes? young guns, do they prevail? >> i think the young guns better hope it's not a cinematic thing people are looking at. the people actually read the book. guys like paul ryan, the republican congressman, they are offering real ideas about entitlements and cutting spending and bringing government back and reining it in and important the republicans can bring that message rather than being fresh faces or good-looking guys. >> they are that, as evidenced in that commercial. bob costa, great having you here. >> great to be here. >> he is a young gun. >> we have three young guns here. >> update on hurricane earl is coming up. we will be right back. ♪ [ female announcer ] you use the healing power of touch every day.
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♪ welcome back to "morning joe." it's 7:01 here on the east coast. friday, september 3rd. . you're looking at our live shots from up and down the east coast as hurricane earl, outskirts of it hitting north carolina making its way up north. i'm willie geist. joe and mika have the day off. we have assembled, i think we have every journalist in western civilization on the show right now. chris jansing is here. andrew ross sorkin is still with
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us and michael crowley and sam stein with us of the huffington post in washington. joining the table now is carl bernstein. the author of a woman in charge the life of hillary reasonable doubt clinton and also matt lewis. i think we got everybody in there. >> you did. >> we get to politics and talk to the panel in a moment but we want to start with hurricane earl. >> it is a mess out there at least down south. hurricane earl lashing eastern north carolina with severe rain and powerful winds this he morning. bill karins has more on the path of the storm. mr. bernstein wants to know when the storm is going to hit here. he has to drive out of town. >> if he is driving from new york to long island he will get into something. >> that's it. >> it's not going to be that bad. he will be on the road with a million other people but that is the only issue. let's talk about the storm itself.
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north carolina did get hit last night and still hit by what i call a strong tropical storm. the hurricane force winds well off the coast. this white line is center of the storm and that is far to the -- off the coastline. winds gusting to tropical storm strength from nagshead to cape hatteras but from raleigh, no problems at all. the next thing we have to watch today it moves off the coast and we get bad winds. tropical storm force that could have a few power outages but cape cod we worry about later on tonight. the storm rapidly now moving up to the north and to the northeast. it's going to be somewhere up in here by about midnight tonight so it's going to fly up the coast. the waves will be the legacy of this storm. huge waves. lots of beach erosion. those are the biggest problems we're dealing with and then the storm itself is going to head up here toward nova scotia as we go throughout saturday morning. the bottom line it's a glancing blow for a lot of the mid-atlantic but the only close call is tonight on the outer
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cape. >> so many people who are going ahead with their plans. it's going to be beautiful weather along much of the east coast. >> you should be fine. >> what about the concerns? where should people be concerned for rip currents? where is it going into the water? they have to be careful tomorrow. >> just a little bit off the coastline but things will improve rapidly as we go throughout the weekend and things will get better. >> any good news for the surfers? did we lose bill karins? >> a frightening shot. >> he got swept away in the storm. >> bill is gone away. we will keep you posted around the track of that storm and how things are looking as it heads up the east coast. the obama administration is stressing a second stimulus package is not being considered as part of a new measures aimed at boosting the nation's economic after outing outgoing
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white house chief economist chris steen romer in a farewell speech this week. robert gibbs ruled out another stimulus adding that the white house would continue to take steps that are, quote, targeted in nature to help continue the recovery. >> having been here since the beginning, there is an issue that the president has spent more time on than the economy, than on the economic recovery, than on financial stability, than on housing, than on -- i don't think there is any doubt about that. >> carl, there is not a second stimulus as sam stein said in our last hour. the white house is running out of economic bullets and a gun. where do they go from here? >> it's a terrible thing we are without the ability that needs to be done to stimulate the economy. we are now feeling in this country the effect of this terrible cultural war fare. largely launched much stronger from the right than the center and the center left, that has made it impossible for this country to deal with its problems in the way that we
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traditionally have and, as a result, our infrastructure, our employment, our education system, our really national fabric is being torn apart by what is going on in our politics and i think it's a time for real pessimism and we need some constructive politics and we're not seeing it, particularly from the right. >> do you believe more spending right now is the answer? >> i'm not an economist but, yes, i think that history shows that in moments like this, that stimulating the economy, putting people to work on projects, whatever is necessary, we've got real unemployment, approaching 18% maybe if you really look what is going on out there. 16 to 24-year-olds this summer, the number might be 40% or 50%. you know, this is a depression for an awful a lot of people and it's a new kind of depression. it's affecting everything we do and we're not dealing with it
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effectively and the president does not have the power, at this point, to deal with it effectively nor does the fed. >> we are getting new august numbers out about an hour and a half from you and bring those to you live. matt lewis, without the political will for a second stimulus, what can the white house do at this point? >> first of all, i don't think a second stimulus would be a good idea any way. i know that's sort of a popular notion right now. the fact is that we already passed this huge stimulus. we were told that the unemployment rate wouldn't exceed 8% if we did. of course, that has not been the case. now it's interesting to me that the solution now is more stimulus when the last one clearly didn't work. i think the real solution is to actually not have make work programs that the government institutes, but to actually stimulate the economy. part of that, i think, is tax cuts. and, also, creating an environment where entrepreneurs invest and want to start
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businesses. right now there is instability and people aren't sure how the health care bill might impact them. the cap and trade looming out there. if you're going to start a new business, if you're going to build a new factory or hire new employees you might say let's wait a minute and see how things shake out before we do it. i think that is ultimately the real problem of generating and getting this economy kick-started. >> sam stein, what does the white house do and how do you sell it to the american public? >> like i said earlier there is sort of limitations in what they can do. matt just offered a mice pop posteriory of talking points there on what the white house shouldn't do. if you look at any reasonable or silver mind the economists they think more money needs to be injected into this economy. let's look at target tax cuts. republicans want to extend the tax cuts for the -- bush tax cuts for the wealthiest. there is a package of small business tax cuts that are out
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there that republicans have basically blocked up until now and they will be considering those when they come back from recess but they are trying to have it both ways. they are blocking a much smaller package of tax cuts designed for small business infrastructure and, at the same time, arguing that you need to extend the bush tax cuts on the wealthy which are hundred of times larger than that. >> i think the question, though, is i'm not rich so i have no personal incentive for this, but look. if your goal is to punish the rich and get even with them, that is one thing. if you want to stimulate the economy you do something different. people who make more than $250,000 a year are the people who start companies and the people who invest, the people who will hire employees. >> you didn't answer my question, matt. >> i didn't know -- number one, i didn't know you were hosting and, number two, i didn't know you had a question. >> wow, wow! >> you have a small business tax cut package that republicans have blocked in the senate which is much smaller than a bush tax cut extension for the wealthy.
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why would you block one and promote the other? >> number one, i don't claim to speak for the republicans nor do i agree with everything they do. i think that might very well be fine, but i would also say cut the corporate tax and corporate gains tax. if you're willing to do that maybe republicans will be willing to negotiate on that. >> will you host the show? >> you are hosting it. >> i want to make two comments. the deficit hawks are winning and probably shouldn't be at this moment because you need to generate the economy. how do you do it on a sustainable basis and fundamentally i think that means infrastructure more than anything else. the second piece on the tax cuts which may or may not work is so much of the focus is on small business. that sounds good in practice but another element to this which is if you can actually stimulate big businesses, it's actually when -- if you read the literature, when big businesses go and start a new factory, decide that they are going to high a thousand people, that often creates five to ten businesses around them because they have to service those
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businesses. so we can talk about small business and that is a good thing. i'm not saying we need tax cuts for wealthy. i'm saying we need to -- maybe it's the payroll tax holiday. how do we get corporations to hire people again? >> are we being sold a bill of goods when we are told it's small business that drives this economy? >> no. there is real truth to that but we have seen the myth make of this whole argument, with all due respect to mr. lewis down there, that was a bunch of nonsense. first of all, the problem with small business right now -- and i think i'm about to give a fact-based ashergs assertion here -- there is not enough lending to small businesses because the banks aren't lending. really, we have got to get away from these talking points that have to do with ideology. what we just heard mr. lewis say has absolutely nothing to do with the reality of the situation, including who this
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tax increase is going to be for, which is to say hugely rich people, and in terms of 250,000 dollars, i believe that means $250,000 of taxable income, am i correct, mr. sorkin? that is an awful lot of income before somebody is going to get a 3% or 4% increase at the most in their taxes. so let's talk about what is really happening here which is we're having a debate framed by rhetoric and not fact and it's working out there. it's working for the republicans. it's working for the right. and somehow the news business, maybe democrats, maybe sensible republicans, have got to, in the interest of the country and real existing life, get this debate on to a factual basis. >> nor am i an economist but one also hears that in that upper
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tax bracket, people are more likely to save and invest their money than to spend it and get it into the economy right away, which what we need. number one. number two,ou have a small percentage of small business owners in that upper tax bracket. these are not small business owners by and large. the last point which is a smaller one by i find it interesting and keep hearing it. the uncertainty over cap and trade is freezing the plans of big businesses. cap and trade is not happening any time soon. i think that should be struck off the reasons why businesses are not investing. it's a bit of a mystery. i think some of the other reasons don't hold water either but say cap and trade is not going to happen. >> fear-based arguments. >> what about that argument, matt, that you say the tax on the rich cripples small businesses when the fact is only about 2% of people who run small businesses make over $250,000 a year? >> well, first let me start off with a point of grooem. i think andrew is right that nothing succeeds like success.
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when we do start to grow this economy, sort of as a multiplier effect. start thinking small ball how to kick-start this thing. ultimately i think the way we will grow the economy is is not tax our way into prosperity and not redistribute wealth so to speak or spread the money around, but it's going to be to actually get job creators and interpractice newers stim plated. that is what i'm excited about is creating an economic situation where people feel like they can invest, they can make money and they can grow businesses and really what entrepreneurs look at is predictable and stability. they want to know what are things going to look like a year from now. quite frankly, as i said earlier if you're going to build a factory today, am i going to
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high employees edge week or next week, probably what you're going to do is say let's see what happens in november and see how things shake out. >> wouldn't they want to hire people if they knew people out there that could buy their products? my point is this. if you get people money who have purchasing power they in turn create a demand that businesses would adjust to. one of the frustrating things for progressive democrats and progressive economists is the inability to get money to the people of purchasing power and i'm specifically speaking about unemployment benefits. you put in a dollar you get something like 1.3 dollars back in economic growth. those have really hard stimulative effects and they have been held up in congress and now talking about a bush tax cut for the health wealthy which has no stimulative effect and that is the big silver bullet for the economy. it flies in the face of logic. that's all. >> what did the bush tax cuts got us in the first place? it got us this deficit.
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we really got to get out of i o ideological argument about the economy and look at what works. >> fact-based. >> who is going to lead the way on that? i thought there was a fascinating quote in an article that anne kornbult wrote today about what the obama administration is going to do. they quote democratic strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity. we did the mosque, katrina, iraq and now middle east peace and in between you redo the oval office? it has become a joke. who is going to lead this fact-based charge and what are they going to say? >> i think it's very difficult in this environment. i said i'm not an optimist. i think the president has tried. i think his own party screwed him in the stimulus package by putting in about $300 million worth of nonsense and gave the argument to the republicans.
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we have got a terrible system that's broken right now and it's no time to be broken. i don't know how we get out of it. >> the white house had better lead or republicans will fill the void because all eyes will be on them as they move into the midterm sweep. >> we will continue this conversation. we just don't feel like we have enough people right now so we're going to bring in a couple more. a proou of "meet the press" when we come back with david gregory and savannah guthrie has this morning's developing headlines out of the white house. later, senate candidate joe sestak of pennsylvania. we will continue to track hurricane earl as it makes its way up the coast headed for the northeast. keep it on "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. ♪ what the people need is a way to make them smile ♪ ♪ it ain't so hard to do h, we ♪ - ♪ and there's nothing wrong - [ bird squawks ] ♪ with what i feel for you ♪ i could hang around till the leaves are brown and the summer's gone ♪
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[ announcer ] when you're not worried about potential dangers, the world can be a far less threatening place. take the scary out of life with travelers insurance... and see the world in a different light. stay twice... earn a free night! two separate stays at comfort inn or any of these choice hotels can earn you a free night -- only when you book at choicehotels.com. can earn you a free night -- no oil has flowed into the gulf for weeks, but it's just the beginning of our work. i'm iris cross. bp has taken full responsibility for the clean up in the gulf and that includes keeping you informed. my job is to listen to the shrimpers and fishermen, hotel and restaurant workers and find ways to help. i was born in new orleans. my family still lives here. bp is gonna be here until the oil is gone and the people and businesses are back to normal... until we make this right.
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♪ arizona has been brought back from its abyss. we have cut the budget. we have wall balanced the budget and we are moving forward. we have done everything that we could possibly do.balanced the
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we are moving forward. we have done everything that we could possibly do. we have -- did what was right for arizona. i will tell you that i have really did the very best that anyone could do. >> arizona governor jan brewer, her opening statement two nights ago. >> i felt bad for her. >> you did? >> i did. >> it happens. >> it happens. you lose that mental train of thought. >> she had a little meltdown. she said later it was the longest 16 seconds of her life as they tried to gather her thoughts there. >> more prone than others is the issue. joining us from washington is the moderator of "meet the press" mr. david gregory. good morning. >> good morning. >> let's talk about your show. you got a great lineup. the debate series resumes and you begin where else? but in florida with that great senate race. >> very interesting. we have mark rubio and mika
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debating each other but we don't have the independent charlie crist who we hoped would join us for this debate. he has made a decision not to join at this point even though he is in the thick of this race. this race in film in such an important year for a midterm election and such a tumultuous year. you have an independent candidate and tea party support for a mainstream republican candidate and the embraces of president obama and his stimulus policies and the gulf oil spill so much playing out here. what is interesting is the impact for meek, the democrat. does he get the democratic establishment in florida to coalesce around him? if he does, what does that portend for governor crist who is relying on democratic support to help him that he is losing much of the conservative support in the republican support to
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marco rubio. >> isn't it interesting that charlie crist declined your offer to come on the debate on sunday. why do you think he did that? >> his people say he has other events planned for labor day weekend and wants to attend to those. this is a strategic choice. any candidate makes a decision about which debates to participate in out of their own self-interest. he does -- there is a new poll out that indicates that rubio is ahead and other polls show crist is ahead. i think he he is trying to find his bearings and want to make an assessment where he wants to be the next eight weeks or so. so that is a decision he made. we, obviously, would love to have him. >> his tan also requires a lot of maintenance. >> we did just show that poll that shows rubio up by ten points but glad you pointed out,
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david, there are bunch of other polls that show crist up. sam stein has a question for you. >> not to point on the candidates ducking you but rand paul did a while back. looking the poll numbers he still sands in pretty good position. looking at this landscape and these candidates labeled extremists on the right, they all stand a pretty good chance of winning. how do you see the composition of the senate next year with some of these more interesting figures likely ending up there? >> well, i think what is interesting is a contrast between somebody like rand paul who is so clearly a libertarian and has really carried the mantle of the tea party versus marco rubio i think is running more as a mainstream republican campaign but who has some tea party. we have other races where the tea party is flexing its muscles. what is interesting here, sam, as you know based on your own reporting, all of that energy in the conservative base is not about social issues. it's about spending. it's about the deficit.
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it's about taxes. it's about the overall argument about the role of the government being a solution or a problem in this economy. i think if that continues to be the dominant strain of the debate, then tea party candidates are bound to do better because there is just such a sense, i think, among voters that the country is headed off into the wrong direction and government is somehow not getting the job done. in that climate, opposition strategy, it can be very effective. >> want to bring into the conversation now nbc news white house correspondent, co-host of "the daily rundown" savannah guthrie. if you're keeping score, we have nine people on the show and two away from fielding a college football team. >> it's like "the brady bunch." >> i don't know what that makes you. which character you want to be. >> marcia, obviously! >> of course. talking about what the white house is talking about. robert gibbs saying no second stimulus but clearly focusing on
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the economy now. >> what robert gibbs said, it's important to parse words, this is washington. he said this is not a big huge stimulus on the order of what we saw in the early parts of the administration around $800 billion. they are not looking at something like that. but they are looking at a variety of options if they were to do all of them and you added it up, i mean, you could start getting into the hundreds of billions of dollars but i don't think any decisions have been made yet. they are looking at a variety of tax cuts, perhaps payroll tax holiday. there is some talk of infrastructure spending so a lot of different things on the table. the question is, of course, a financial one, how much do they cost. also the political cost. not only is it extremely questionable whether anything can get through at this late date, but also is there a political price to pay simply for offering it. now there are some who say the president should decide what he thinks is best for this economy, no matter what it costs, no
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matter how political parallelist and put it out there. we'll see if it happens. they announced yesterday a speech in cleveland on wednesday on the economy. this could be an opportunity perhaps for the president to roll out some new initiatives or it could be just another speech on the economy that we've heard many, many times. and then the other thing that is can inting they added a press conference next friday so we will see a lot from the president next week. we haven't seen him in a press conference format, that give and take, in quite a while. >> i think what is so significant here in this debate during this election season about the role of taxes, should there be target tax breaks, the role of stimulus. which is why it is after this financial collapse and the measures put into effect we still have in effect a jobless recovery, why we have this kind of drag on productivity in the country. why we have such intractable
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problems in the economy the economy can't address and can't get private industry to address. i mean, this is an historic time and i think what is hurting democrats is that you've got to -- and it could certainly rebound against republicans as well. that washington has proven rather ineffective in cutting through some of these issues at a historic time. why it is we can't get people back to work and what is really creating a drag on this economy. >> the question i have, david asked the right question and i don't know if i have the right answer which it's a chicken or an egg issue. is the economy keeping companies from hiring new people or is it the government? some people are saying it's the government keeping companies from hiring new people because not enough confidence and uncertainty around policy. the question is it policy or is it the economy or is it really both? and one is exacerbating the other? >> michael crowley here. florida has played ftse with
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crist and think he has a better chance and might see him win but do you think a wholehearted position from meek because a base for democrats to treat meek well? >> i think they have to follow and see what more of the florida delegation does initially to see how they coalesce around meek and i think you're right and hedge their bets here thinking crist is somebody they might be able to do business with. can you imagine a scenario governor crist is an independent and that is the only vote that keeps him in the majority? i think they want to kind of keep that close and weigh their options and i think the president will be careful about weighing in. obviously, this is a state where he can make a difference if he goes down in terms of turning out democratic votes. >> david gregory, thanks so much. see you on "meet the press." can't wait to see your debate with marco rubio and kendrick meek. we should wish you a happy belate milestone birthday, david. >> yes. >> 60 has never looked so good.
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>> thanks a lot. yeah, yeah. >> thanks, david. see you on sunday. savannah? 20 has never looked so good on you. >> oh, willie! >> come on. catch you on "the daily rundown" right after "morning joe." >> such a charmer. >> in a few minutes, senator joe sestak from pennsylvania joins us after the break and a live report on hurricane earl making its way up the east coast on this labor day weekend. we'll be right back. ♪ good to be alive i'm told ♪ i do a lot of different kinds of exercise,
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♪ welcome back to "morning joe" and take a look what is going on as we head into a beach week, the last big weekend of the summer. residents along the east coast are bracing for at least 24 hours of powerful gusts and driving rains from hurricane earl this morning. nbc kristen dahlgren has been out on north carolina's outer banks and feeling the effects of the storms for hours now and finally it looks better than it has for many hours, kristen. how is it going?
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>> yeah, hey, chris. we have seen the rain diminish a little bit but still feeling the gusty winds. anyone think not getting a direct hit from earl isn't a big deal, the people in the northeast now waiting. take a look at this and what the people may be in store for. the ocean churned up right now from this powerful storm. it's pag passing the center of earl passing off the coast from where we are but we have seen waves like this for hours and hours now, absolutely punishing these beaches here so we are expecting to see some beach erosion and i can tell you i'm standing on a fifth floor balcony and i'm covered in sand at this point. that's how powerful the winds have been blowing that sand up here as well. so still a very strong storm. we're expecting to feel the effects here until about 10:00 a.m. eastern time this morning. we still have a little ways to go here. now that it's light, officials heading out to do damage assessments. so far we are just hearing about some water across some roadways to our south.
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down closer to hatteras. some of those roads closed as well down there. there are some power outages. i'd say it's in the hundreds that we have seen reports of. where we are, we haven't lost power at all. a lot of people spared by this storm staying offshore but a long night with the winds and the rain. >> kristen dahlgren, thank you for that reporting. up next, joe sestak has come out on swinging in the pennsylvania senate race. will that be enough to help him in the polls? ♪ i know got nothing on you ♪ ♪ i know there is nothing to do ♪ ♪ when times go bad you can't get enough snowe notes won't you lay me down in the tall grass ♪ bp has taken full responsibility for the clean up in the gulf and that includes keeping you informed. my job is to listen to the shrimpers and fishermen, hotel and restaurant workers and find ways to help. i was born in new orleans.
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♪ ♪ do you think corporations pay their fair share?
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>> let's not tax corporations. i think the solution is to eliminate corporate taxes altogether. >> the middle class is struggling but toomey thinks wall street and banks should pay no taxes, zero. no wonder he has been called wall street's congressman. >> the solution is to eliminate all corporations together. >> pat toomey is for them, not for us. >> joe sestak rolled out his first campaign ad against his contender pat toomey. will it be enough to convince the voters. take a look at recent poll. joining us from philadelphia, congressman joe sestak. good morning. >> thanks for having me back. >> your opponent say the statements were taken out of context that you misrepresent his position. in fact, a spokesman for him said pat believes jobs come from cutting taxes and reducing deficits, sestak believes jobs
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come from more washington spending and failed stimulus plan. that sthat a fair representation? >> well, i always think it's best to let the opponent speak himself so why you saw congressman toomey he doesn't believe corporations pay taxes. it's interesting. >> what he says is the point he was making if it was taken in context was that consumers ultimately pay for higher taxes on businesses. he is for lowering taxes on businesses. >> he is actually advocated what france has. a 30% tax increase on the middle class. he calls it a national tax. he actually wants corporations to have zero taxes but for us, the working people, to have a tax increase but worse than that, he wants to gut social security. he wants to privatize it in wall street. even worse than that, he has said that he thinks china should have the right to subsidize their exports and he thinks the loss of american jobs are just merely creative destruction.
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congressman toomey probably the worst of it is that when he was president of what john mccain called the bagman for the ultra rich that he was a club for growth, wanted to purge the republican party of moderate republicans and why i was glad to see senator hagel, republican, endorse me. i come from the military. i think there are problems we ve. we have got to face them together in a very pragmatic way. take small businesses. for over a year, year and a half i have advocated that small businesses should get tax credits. 15% for every new payroll job. i also advocated if you invest in a small business because they do create 80% of all new jobs they should have zero capital gains. let's focus on where the working families grow wealth up. congressman ktoomey has a different craft here. >> congressman, a couple of our panelists who want to ask you some questions.
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sam stein. >> hi, sam. good to talk to you again. >> in your primary, you did a kre very crafty thing of tying arlen specter to george w. bush. who is going to play a bigger role in your place? is it george w. bush or barack obama? >> the biggest one is going to be the working families of pennsylvania. i really knew that -- >> come on! >> seriously! >> come on! >> even the panel is groaning! >> you all aren't from pennsylvania. we're pretty common senseical people. people want to know do want extreme makeover by congressman toomey. he worked in hong kong for a billionaire chinese and worked on swaps that had china actually keep its debt lower so that we had our dollar higher and, therefore, it cost us 97,000 jobs in pennsylvania over the years. or do they want somebody who
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grew up in the military and just wants to serve them by small business tax cuts, by educational opportunity? that is what they are going to focus on. i think people make too much, at least in pennsylvania, of those who examine from the outside. >> matt lewis, i don't know if you're from pennsylvania but were you groaning along with the rest of the folks on our panel here? >> my mom does live in pennsylvania. >> there you go. >> along those lines, though, let me ask you, congressman. you, obviously, did come through a primary where you ousted an incumbent senator and we have seen a phenomenon on the recent side where challengers beat incumbents and sometimes those incumbents aren't quick to endorse the nominee. i'm wondering if you could talk a little bit has senator specter and governor rendell have they been helping you as much as you need them to to win this race some. >> the primary was important for me because i wanted to demonstrate that as john f. kennedy once said, sometimes the party asks too much. and if my party is wrong, i will
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always be on the side of the working family. hi a nice discussion the week before with senator specter's son and him calling again senator specter, governor rendell has been tremendous. he said anything you need, he is ready to help. and as you can see, we've had over, geez, i think $5 million of special interest groups karl rove and congressman toomey coming in with a lot of ads. i will come back to you. pennsylvania is different. we're the sons and daughters, grandson es and daughters of steel workers like i am. i think you will see us making our decisions on on a pragmatic approach and i want to be someone who can work across the aisles and solve problems. not use rhetoric. and that is, i think, what you will see and held accountable and lose their job over doing what is right and i think that is what is most needed in the senate. >> i heard bill clinton introduce you one night in one
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of the great political speeches when you were running for congress. are you going to bring him up there to campaign for you? >> yes. he already came in to scranton for me but, unfortunately, i had to be -- fortunately for pennsylvania, i had to be voting for the f-map bill that prevented the medicaid that prevented 12,000 pennsylvanians from losing their jobs but bett for me, my wife introduced him and even better, my daughter alex, she adores him and they introduced him. >> he is spending time in the race? >> i spoke to him a week ago. wanted to know when and where. >> representative joe sestak, thanks very much. >> carl, get on the lie. you better start now. >> good to see you, congressman. >> sam, thanks. >> have a great weekend, everybody. >> are you ready for some football? i'm ready! >> our friend dave circumstances
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erin joins us next to talk football. you're watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. ♪ [ male announcer ] let's throw on those saturday clothes. it's doing season. when we grab a little spare time...and get after it. the home depot has all the right prices... and all the know how...to start making things happen... less with our wallets... and more with our own two hands. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. we're lowering the cost of updating your bathroom. with vanities starting at just 49 bucks.
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the nfl season is a week away and everyone's starting to make their picks for fantasy football. yeah. if you're not -- no. i'm excited. if you're not familiar with fantasy football it is like dungeons and dragons. for the people who beat up the people who played dungeons and dragons. so it's really -- >> well said. skroining us now, sports writer for "the nation" and author of "bad sports," dave zirin. good to see you again. >> great to be here. i did play sports in high school and also jewish and walk the halls beating myself up. >> afraid of -- >> mentally an physically. >> you walked that lean. >> dungeons and dragons or no? >> no, no. they did get beat up. had to happen. >> you beat them up? >> not at all. self abuse. that's all i did in high school. that sounded weird. >> so the nfl -- move right past
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that. the nfl season is upon us. but there are some problems looming on the horizon for this league. >> oh, absolutely. there are a couple of huge problems that the nfl is facing that are the size of the dallas cowboys' offensive line and it's all about labor. and isn't it interesting only through sports that you have serious discussions about labor and management relations. used to be every newspaper had a labor reporter. but people should enjoy their nfl season this year because next year most likely a lockout. i have interviewed the head of the nfl players' association and asked him the chances of a lockout scale of one to ten and he said 14. the argument is a good one and really interesting. he is saying, look, if there's a lockout, the owners want it. we're going put out a message saying they lock us out, they're locking out every stadium
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worker, the people with extra shifts on the restaurants around the stadium and an issue. sounded like joe sestak. >> what are the one or two sticking points? why is this so intractable at this point? >> there's only one sticking point. nfl players get 60% of the revenue and owners want to bring it down to 50%. all the bells and whistles, that's what it comes down to. they want a massive pay cut at a time when there's so much consciousness about concussions and owners switched the tact of the toll players take. it is a tough sale. >> isn't the pie expanded so much larger and that on a dollar basis, the players make more money than they used to and the players railroad not the players but the owners want to limit that? >> it is a difficult argument for the owners. they're making that argument, we need to make it more fair ian
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another argument saying because of these tough economic times, we are getting less public expenditures for stadium funding, one of my favorite things, of course, in the world. love this. >> works at the heart of the average american trying to hold on to his job. >> exactly. that's -- >> getting millions of dollars. >> root for the player or owner? because it feels like neither -- >> honestly, root for the player and because nobody ever paid $80 for a ticket to watch jerry jones run down the sideline. >> another big issue and works against the owners perhaps, they want a 18-game schedule. you talk to players. you know this. to a man, they don't want to play two games. this is two weeks' worth more money. >> two more chances to get hurt, right? >> exactly. imagine the playoffs watching third string quarterbacks. that's what you could be looking at with a 18-game schedule. it is a terrible idea. pennywise, pound foolish. the nfl the only league that
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gets this right. the season just the perfect length. it is like the thornbirds for men. the priest and everybody's watching it. that's the nfl not just for men, women. women love the nfl, sorry about that. it is like this 17-week mini series that people tune in and i think it is this very delicate ecosystem and you run the risk of killing the golden goose. >> can they take 2% of the revenue and put it in a fund for guys with brain injuries? do something for the group that is sympathetic. >> they need to because the consciousness about this exploded. a year ago, you could talk about nfl owners as being like tobacco executives that said that smoking doesn't cause lung cancer. playing football doesn't cause concussions and now posters in every locker room this fall very dramatic saying a concussion can change your life. depression, you have a teammate
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with a concussion, you have an obligation to go to the trainer and blow the whistle on them so they're taking a much more serious tack on it. >> if they were smart they would go back. the problems start in high school and college. some high schools to get the funding will have programs to watch and monitor these kids. >> this is the achilles of the golden goose. how's that metaphor? the nfl could be like boxing. 30 years ago boxing one of the biggest sports in the united states. people got to see the toll that went on people like ali and parents stopped bringing their kids to the boxing ring. it is not inconceivable the nfl marginalized by the toll of young children. >> if it wasn't for fantasy football, where would the nfl be? >> difficult place. >> radical call. >> gets people talking. >> it is a radical call. raifbs-packers in the super bowl this year. bam. laid it down.
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love them. absolutely. >> offense? they have the defense. >> ray rice will be the offensive player of the year. rogers for mvp and beating in the boss hog bowl in dallas. >> too much hype about the jets? >> yes. i would be nervous. you're all alone with no rebis. >> rex ryan on hard knocks -- >> so entertaining. >> so good. >> not since al bundy so entertained. >> dave zirin, the book. get to see you. up next, eugene robinson joins the conversation and more on what hurricane earl has in store for your holiday weekend. hey, smart, we could stay here for the conference.
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welcome back to "morning joe." just after 8:00 empty morning on the east coast. you can see we have cameras up and down from north carolina up to massachusetts. some parts of the condition tri hit by the storm right now. some overnight and some waiting to be hit by hurricane earl. welcome back to "morning joe." i'm willie geist. joe and mika have the day off. chris janesing joins me. >> such a pleasure. i'm in the big girl's seat. >> a storm brewing right here! >> there is. we are going to get to that a second. you are outraged by gene
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robinson's column. >> i'm not outraged. but i'll give him a hard time anyway. >> pretend. matt lewis with us in washington and also from d.c. "the washington post" pulitzer prize winning columnist gene robinson writing today about what he called the spoiled brat american electorate. gene, can't wait to dig into that. that's in just a moment but first an update -- >> is it good idea for an argument on a friday on a labor day weekend with an award winner? >> andrew wants to. >> we'll talk about hurricane earl making the way up the east coast. after lashing eastern north carolina with severe rain and powerful winds this morning, nbc meteorologist bill karins has new details on the path of the storm. we have an update? >> good morning, chris. new intensity in from the hurricane center. still saying it's a category 2 with 105-mile-per-hour winds. still a strong hurricane but not the beast of yesterday.
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weakened overnight and yesterday evening ear spared eastern north carolina. this white line is how we have been tracking the center of the storm. you notice that little jog down here. that really helped eastern north carolina because if that would have made it 50 miles closer to the coast, as it was, tropical storm force winds in cape hatteras, a couple guests near 78. i don't expect a lot of damage out there. a lot of water. been raining hard. the waves have been incredible. it will be a while before they clean it all up and things today improve out here in north carolina. wind gusts currently 49-mile-per-hour gusts and the weather in eastern north carolina will improve rapidly. who's next? maryland, deldelaware, new jers shore. probably barely like a nor'easter. you will experience tropical storm force winds. maybe gusts to 50 miles per hour or so. see the storm, the bright reds show the intensity and weakening
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and only intense spots off the coast and that's what could head up towards the islands of cape cod and only really big concern. waves jumping to 14-foot waves heading up towards new england. as far as the wave action goes, that's the biggest story in the day. the dunes ripped apart a little bit. beach erosion. forecast, tonight about midnight is where the storm is closer to nantucket, mar that's vineyard, chatham, massachusetts. and outer cape. you will notice pushing away from the mid-atlantic today so do not expect a big rain event and winds on the jersey shore southwards. winds gusting to 24 miles per hour in maryland, ocean city. possibly 40 or 50 gusts and things improving in north carolina. only drama left, guys, wait and see what happens out there in cape cod. >> thank you very much, bill. let's go outside to montauk, long island where mike seidel is
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standing by for us. we'll see if they take that graphic down. i'm hold that you have rolled -- gone from the clam dig tore the full pant look an i'm wondering if that is a signal for what is happening with the storm. is that a barometer? >> reporter: wow. that's very heavy, madonna. i tell you what, that philosophy there. >> i'll take her bank account. >> reporter: yeah. there you go. there you go, chris. well, i put them down. the tide has gone out. i may have them back up by late this morn. >> so it is a barometer? >> reporter: yes. >> a key economic indicator. >> reporter: exactly. >> yeah. >> reporter: exactly. but what we have going for us right now is the fact that tide gone out and we have beach to show you. i checked the montauk buyo 23 miles southwest of the eastern tip of long island for those of you from the other parts of the country and wave height ten
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footers. 14 footers off the jersey shore. we have sunshine this morning. you won't need a lot of spf. the storm approaches but much weaker storm and out here we may get gusts between 40 and 50 miles per hour. we should get some rain. i checked the latest model run. the u.s. model. out here in the far eastern tip of long island, half to anch of rain. a quick mover. out of here by midnight. wave action eats away at the beaches. main impact. the beaches closed today. tomorrow, reopen and may have to swim near the lifeguards. ocean front campgrounds shut down. long island railroad have stopped service for now. that will resume tomorrow. i don't think we'll have major issues on the trains and other than that, it's pretty much not a bad morning out here. winds running about two or three miles per hour. if the hat goes off, there's another sign it's windy. back to you. >> all right. mike seidel, travelers up and
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down the coast watching your pants to see what to do today. we appreciate. gene, your op-ed in "the post" this morning. excerpt, voters appear to be so fed up with the democrats that they're ready to toss them out in favor of the republicans for whom, according to those same polls the nation has even greatgreat er contempt. this is a temper tantrum and the point you go on to make is, of course, voters want irrationally quick solutions to their problems and then change their minds two years later. flush out your piece a little more for us. >> they not only want quick solutions but painless solutions. and you know, look. this is a column that i think could have been written at any point certainly in the last ten years or maybe 20 years, and i fear that i could write it again a few years from now. but remember. you know, in 2006, the republican party seemed to be dying.
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in 2008 it was dead. we were after the election we were asking whether the republicans could ever be a national party again. now, as we go into the midterms, we're saying that, well, the democratic party is over, at least for now. and the republicans ares ascended. when's happening, i think is, look. we have what faces this country are some long-term structural, difficult problems that are exacerbated by the worse recession we have seen in many, many decades, and we'd love to have it fixed now. love to have it fixed without any particular inconvenience if you please. and that's not possible and i think the voters are kind of stamping their feet. >> eugene, it's andrew sorkin here. we live in an a.d.d. society here, agree with you, that's a
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problem unto itself and you seem to be arguing in some ways and i may be projecting and the dems shouldn't go up against their own party and you say something important in the end of the column and speaks to why some democrats turning against their own party saying the one thing he meaning barack obama really hasn't done is framed the hard work that lies ahead as a national crusade requiring sacrifice from every one of us. there's a chris christie of new jersey problem in that the public would buy into somebody with a long-term plan and i don't think we're hearing the plan. no? >> you know, andrew, i agree with you. and i make clear earlier in the column that this a.d.d. factor that the public is showing is kind of an equal opportunity scourge. it affects both parties, and the democrats -- i'm not, you know, making a case for the democrats
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here. and in fact, i do believe that while president obama has done a number of politically difficult things that have an eye toward the long term, i think he has never even really tried to frame his program and what he sees ahead as a sort of national crusade that will require sacrifice. i thought he might make that pivot or try to make that pivot in the speech he gave the other night frankly, saying we made the sacrifices in iraq. we're turning the page on that. and then, when we moved to the economy, i thought he might go into a longer section talking about, you know, essentially saying now it is time for us all to pull together. it is not going to be easy and quick and we are all going to have to give up something as we do in great national causes in order to put the country on a
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better, sustainable path toward growth and greatness. i thought we'd hear something like that. we didn't. he kind of pivoted back to afghanistan and then god bless america. and i'm still kind of waiting for that sort of specific, you know, grand project national crusade appeal from president obama. i think it might have worked. >> that's what i was going to say. do you think it would have worked in the a.d.d. society? would the public have the patience if they saw the long term and saw the light at the end of the tunnel? >> the answer to that may honestly be no, andrew. you know, just to be perfectly honest. but i think if you remember, coming off the president's election that incredible wave of good feeling that everyone had at the inauguration, if there was a moment when you could do that and i know that at that time president obama and other
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members of his administration certainly had in mind the kind of long-term challenges and program that -- program was necessary to meet those challenges, if there was ever a propitious moment to try at least i think that was probably it. and then, as he got into the business of governing and got into health care and then the moment kind of slipped awe and so now you can imagine what the reaction would have been from other democrats if the president said we have to sacrifice and you ought to be paying more at the gas pump and maybe you will have to be unemployed for a while or take a job you're overqualified for. you know, that would have gone over well with his democratic colleagues as they fight for their jobs. >> but the truth to your point, gene srks that -- there's new numbers out about the people that lost their jobs and when they got a new job now they're underemployed.
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we can talk about the fact the americans are paying down their credit card debt. that they're spending less. that they're saving more. and yet, you call them the spoiled brat electorate. what is it that the american people are supposed to do under these circumstances? >> no. well, they're supposed to be doing what they're doing. one thing that happened obviously is we had a huge housing bubble that burst. and so, people thought they were a lot richer than they turned out actually to be. an ens and so they're not going to drag as much money. that's a drag on the economy. that's a drag on the recovery going forward. so we're in for a long slog. on the economic set. so -- but it is the same under the republicans, as well. and so, just happens to be the democrats who are in office now and they may get turned out and the republicans will come in and they'll have the same -- face the same a.d.d. public. >> matt lewis, not just voters
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who aren't willing to make tough decisions but politicians. everyone wants to cut but on the show we ask them specific what kind of meaningful cuts to impact the deficit. you don't get great answers, quite frankly. >> look. i think chris christie is a great example of a politician that went in there and did something. but i think we do need to get to fundamental, bold ideas. i think we should consider eliminating the income tax and finding other revenue streams. i think we should raise the retirement age. 65 is young now. it's no longer old. and i think we should disconnect health care from employment. but let me just say going back to eugene's column. i find it interesting, he says the not partisan but it's interestinging as voters move towards republicans they're spoiled and moving toward obama they were enlightened. i think that there's something that hasn't been touched on here and that's that the american public doesn't always get into the weeds on, you know,
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intricacies of policy discussions but there's an intuitive sense that things aren't right now and the public gets divided government f. you look at the reagan and clinton years, those are good times with divided government. i think the public is smarter than gene gives them credit for. >> i think that the predicament here is sacrifice, unfortunately, talk of sacrifice is a political loser. it's one reason why george w. bush never made the call for sacrifice a lot of people wanted to see after the 9/11 attacks. i mean, we were at war in afghanistan. and it's one reason why obama is generally avoiding that rhetoric now. and i think that goes all the way back to walter mondale and other examples but i think that said the president did talk in the health care reform plan of bringing down costs, bending the curve. when he did that, health care was less popular. voters, sounds nice to say we need a collective sacrifice. people punish you for doing it. last thing to say is the president set up a deficit reform commission.
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he made an effort to get republicans to vote for it in the senate. they wouldn't do it. he is -- he has been setting us up and talking of a point to address long-term spending, entitlements, the deficit, taxes, social security. he doesn't have his head completely buried in the sand long term and need to give him some credit. wait and see if he follows through and the commission and that's a big part of the ark of the presidency. we haven't gotten to that point yet. >> gene robinson, a provoking column. spoiled brat american electorate. again, people talking this morning. thanks so much, gene. >> great to be here, willie. >> have a great weekend. next, exclusive first look at the political playbook including arizona governor's awkward moment. >> did feel her pain? >> i did feel bad for her. >> wall street bracing for the august jobs report. live to the new york stock exchange. that's a big number. coming up in 13 minutes.
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plus, which stories made the cut for the "morning joe" week in review? how about the young guns? keep it here. interesting grooming. thanks. i got the idea from general mills big g cereals. they put a white check on the top of every box to let people know that their cereals have healthy whole grain, and they're the right choice... (announcer) general mills makes getting whole grain an easy choice. just look for the white check. ♪ [ upbeat instrumental ] [ rattling ] [ gasps ]
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arizona has been brought back from the abyss. we have cut the budget. we have balanced the budget. and we are moving forward. we have done everything that we could possibly do.
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we have -- did what was right for arizona. ly tell you that i have really did the very best that anyone could do. my opening was not the finest hour. and certainly was a -- the longest 16 seconds of my life. >> fair enough, yes, ma'am. >> i'm human. i'm human. >> maybe she was just praying. petitioning the lord with prayer. >> being thoughtful, thoughtful politician. >> finally. >> we have all had that happen. >> at this very desk. >> at this table. someone usually gets to save you from yourself. >> that's why this is an opportunity or chances where it doesn't happen. >> 25 people on at once today. bail each other out for moments. >> absolutely. >> with us is jim van deheid. >> how are you? a long ten-second pause now for
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laughs? >> ush. what's -- how's that race shaping up? what do the polls look like in arizona? she has a comfortable lead and for the party remains incredibly popular and the truth is if you look at other gubernatorial races, we had a story up and surveyed the 37 races, in 27 you have candidates taking almost identical stances to hers on immigration which is the issue that brought her to national prominence so while the issue is very unpopular in washington and maybe on this coast, her position resonates for much of america. >> you got an interesting gallup poll you're talking about in politico today showing why voters may vote republican. whether it's a pro-gop vote or anti-democrat vote. take us through the number. >> right. not surprisingly, seeing people ready to vote for republicans so sick of democrats, not because they're somehow energized by the power of republican ideas. in fact, if you look at polls, most voters have negative
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feelings about the republican party and about their policies and the only reason that they want to get republicans back in power is because they're just sick of democrats, sick of the economy and sick of what's happening in washington. you see this often in wave elections or elections where you see a big number of pickups for the minority party. we saw it in '06 when democrats won back control and 1994 when republicans took control from democrats. where people have just tired of the party in power and they turn to the alternative and want something else, someone else. even if they don't like the something or someone else. >> matt lewis, does it mean that republicans to some degree can kind of sit back and let democrats self destruct? >> well, that's a big debate, actually, among consultants, especially republican consultants. clearly you can win elections by not standing for anything. in other words, i think that, you know, democrats in 2006 won merely by running against george w. bush. the problem that republicans are going to have long term, though,
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is if they're a party of "no" and don't stand for anything, how do you govern that way? i think republicans come out with detailed plans here of an actual, you know, strategy, not -- maybe like a contract with america. i think that is important because, look, if republicans regain the majority and then fail miserably, it's going to be really bad and i think you want talk about the brand being hurt. >> yeah. >> this number is really just a ring for democrats. it is a change. into the spring, the republican brand was still worse than the democratic brand and democrats taking heart. i was in ohio in the spring and a couple of races where democrats overperforming and because people still mad at republicans than democrats and i think that the sense that the economy almost came out of the ditch and now going back in has really changed that trend. the republican number now is higher than the democratic number and people kind of giving up on the democrats and it is a disaster. >> i do think that a lot of people really aren't getting
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this point about divided government. i really believe -- i don't know that voters are strategic going to the polls saying i want divided government but really if you look at what's been successful in the reagan years and the clinton years, i mean, look. balanced budgets. bill clinton working with newt gingrich. that is when we have had times of peace and prosperity. at least in recent history. so, i do think that the american public, maybe not strategically doing it, but there's a sense with one party controlling all levers of government, bad things happen. >> independents like the divided government, the result of divided government. independents are the sole reason that republicans have a great chance to win back the house. if you look back to last july, when the cap and trade vote coming up, health care heating up, democrats lost the independent vote and not able to get it back. independents like the idea of the parties working together and they like the idea of not driving the deficits up too high so i think that's the big factor going forward.
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i think coming out, you won't see a clear republican agenda i think until you get into the 2012 campaign and a standard bearer defines the republican party. the party is very much at odds in terms of the direction of the party and papered over to unite in the hopes of winning back power so before i do wrap up, i want to say big thanks to pete brenn who's leaving, a producer. thanks to pete and good luck. >> thank you, jim. pete is -- pains me to say this. >> abandoning us. >> heart and soul of the show. >> love pete. >> jim, thanks so much. have a good holiday weekend. awaiting major august jobs report due out any moment. we'll go to the new york stock exchange with that number when we come back.
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no oil has flowed into the gulf for weeks, but it's just the beginning of our work. i'm iris cross. bp has taken full responsibility for the clean up in the gulf and that includes keeping you informed.
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my job is to listen to the shrimpers and fishermen, hotel and restaurant workers and find ways to help. that means working with communities. we have 19 centers in 4 states. we've made over 120,000 claims payments, more than $375 million. we've committed $20 billion to an independent claims fund to cover lost income until people impacted can get back to work. we'll keep looking for oil, cleaning it up if we find it and restoring the gulf coast. i was born in new orleans. my family still lives here. bp is gonna be here until the oil is gone and the people and businesses are back to normal... until we make this right.
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welcome back to "morning joe." it is 8:30 in the morning in new york city. that's montauk, the eastern most point of long island. hurricane earl weakening but making the way up the coast and causing headaches for people this weekend. we have breaking news on the economy. that all-important jobs report, erin burnett has the number. >> hey, guys. sorry i'm looking down. unemployment rate ticked up to
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9.6%. payroll number, better than expected an the market will pop on this. payroll number what matters. expecting a job of 110,000 jobs. only got a drop of 54,000. that's still down and bad. you are not wrong but includes the census numbers and you need to take those out. when you look at private payrolls which is what really corporate america did in the month of august, you had an increase of 67,000. anticipate for about 40,000. it is better than expected. and that's what i would take away from this. i would note, though, that we obviously lost 8.4 million jobs in the financial crisis so to catch up with that, you'd need to have 200,000 jobs or more a month. you will not see self sustaining things are fixed job growth but you are where you are seeing consistent job growth and not seeing a big dropoff as you might have seen heading into the double dip scenario. >> perspective? >> this is very, very big news,
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great news. we went through the past month of august everyone was talking about double dip, double dip, double dip. a couple of bulls saying maybe things get bter and a head fake and this is a sense of satisfaction that maybe things are better than we thought. >> but for the american people going into the labor day weekend and, you know, number -- should be 110 and better than that, it should be 40 and it's better than that. the question is, does that give president obama some breathing room because people say, yeah, he is right. it is slow but getting better. >> i think, obviously, for the average american almost imperceptible. they don't -- the new jobs, they don't have the skills for new jobs. you have problems that won't untangle for a long time. democrats, as long as they have some data points where they can say we're turning the corner, we had a hiccup, that really could blunt this republican tide.
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it might not take that much to put a few seats out of play and hold on to the house of representatives. with a little bit of good news going into the fall, might not be too late. >> erin, what's going on with futures? >> they're popping. they went up -- we were almost flat and we're now going to open up i would say -- right about 100 points or something. you have a pop on it. one thing, though, andrew will key in on this, too. when you look within the number, one place of weakness as this doesn't surprise people and weighs into the stimulus debate is government jobs. saw a decline of 121,000 and doesn't include necessarily census and state and local governments forced to lay people off and people who are for more stimulus arguing about. if you keep seeing local governments lay people off, that could be self fulfilling in a negative way and saw that weakness in here. >> matt lewis, what do you make of the numbers politically? >> erin said that payroll
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numbers are what matters and might be true in terms of the economy but politically speaking it is the unemployment number that really matters. 9.6%. not good. i said months ago that to avoid a wave election it would need to be about 7% on election day. and trending downward. that's not going to happen. i think that the die has been cast. the economy is the most important issue this year and i think it is 9.6% could spin it however you like. not going to be like for democrats on election day. >> no. you know, of course the weirdness about that as you all know, the unemployment rate actually will tick up as you get better. only counted in the rate of survey of american households looking for a job in the past month and as people feel better, they look for jobs. but they'll start to count again and so that rate will actually tick up as things get better. if things are better, ticking up into the election, not down. >> there's a seasonal issue. people come back to school, they
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come back looking for jobs, more people looking for jobs means the rate looks worse than it -- i don't know if it looks worse but it is worse. >> they have something to talk about. at least they're not trying to explain away downward trajectory. they'll take it. >> my question is people's eyes glaze over making that argument. >> yes, they may. >> in this time of relative good news -- >> relatively that's what it is. thanks, guys. >> have a good weekend. we have been tracking hurricane earl all morning up the coast and starting to see some strange -- what is this? >> what is that? >> strange things. this is at kill devil hills. >> that's joe! >> guy going for a surf. hasn't shaved on vacation. >> can't go anywhere in public and he needs to put on a costume. >> wow. that was bizarre. i didn't know that was -- >> joe's so popular. >> didn't see mika behind him? >> i missed that.
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see that tape again? >> maybe not. >> going to sur. hang ten. >> why in the pete -- pete checked out. putting gorillas on the air at this point. let's go live to weather channel's paul goodloe bracing for the storm in chatham, massachusetts. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. a calm before the storm. one thing we're seeing now haven't seen in a couple of days is, "a" clouds have come in. high clouds of hurricane earl and also over my left shoulder here, one house boarding up to protect the windows here. you see oftentimes people putting tapes on windows. that does nothing. to protect your house and property, put plywood up in front of the windows and that's what one house is doing around here. looking at chatham harbor, not seeing the boats of the last couple of days. the harbor used to be filled with boats moored out here.
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i count five. in fact, there was a dock out here and moving part of that floating dock away for safekeeping because as hurricane earl approaches throughout the day today, winds calm now. easily exceeding tropical storm forces towards the afternoon. we are expecting closest pass of hurricane earl maybe a direct hit towards the overnight hours into early saturday morning. chris? >> thanks very much, paul. >> paul, thanks so much. matt lewis, thanks so much. great having you in the conversation this morning. >> thank you. >> enjoy the long weekend. andrew ross sorkin -- >> thanks for having me. >> i have to wait for the jan brewer moment. >> all right. the "morning joe" midterm exam is next. we discuss which players could be game changers heading into november. ♪ ooh, ooh [ mom ] walmart checks other stores' prices so we can save on all our game time favorites. aah! [ laughter ] [ dad ] what do you think of that, huh? [ mom ] and if there's a better price out there, they'll even match it.
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which means come game time, i'm just as ready as he is. go! go! yeah! [ mom ] game time costs less at walmart. save money. live better. walmart.
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time for the "morning joe" midterm exam. joe, mika and i sat down with
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john heilemann and msnbc political analyst and author of "more davids than goliaths" our friend harold ford jr. and former dnc chair howard dean. >> if republicans take control of congress, this fall, a lot of people are going to be looking at republican leaders. >> base of the gop. >> figure out what will happen two years from now. >> uh-huh. >> who would be the republican leaders? harold ford, if republicans take control of congress, who emerges as the national figure? notary public? newt gingrich? >> not who he wishes emerges. >> who will emerge? >> understand, if the republicans win the house, at least 39 republicans have to win. say you have 39 or 40 republicans win, much like your class in '94, i think you will have faces from that class become leaders in that country. >> they won't be running -- >> i know.
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i still believe if as i sit back as a democrat and think about re-electing this president, the person that worries me the most is chris christie. i don't agree with what he put forward but stuck to them. he's not mean. the issue on cult call issues is not only reasonable but it's right. he's a kind of republican who in many ways might be able to unite different wings of the party. sarah palin, i don't care what anybody says, she is running for president. she will be formidable. >> thank you. >> i don't like agreeing with pat but pat was right a few weeks ago saying if you have a crowd of huckabee, palin in iowa and some ways romney's advantage if you have palin, huckabee splitting that vote. palin is a formidable candidate. looking at this, chris christie scares may little bit. >> i think he is the one, a real guy. >> i don't think sarah palin gets it. i think even running in the
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republican primary, i think when her message is less scripted to a line on facebook here or a line at a speech there, she spontaneously come busts. john heilemann -- >> another name, though. >> i don't know. i don't know. >> if meg whitman wins the governorship in california, she will be a fact already no the republican party. a woman who has a lot of -- obviously a lot of gender appeal that sarah palin tapped into and a grown-up, serious person. ran a huge company. now the governor of california. i don't mean necessarily running for president immediately but a big voice in the republican party and part of an important trend for the party. >> interesting. >> speaking of grown-ups -- >> yeah? >> haley barbour. a guy i said i don't think he matches up well but a guy that will kick around republicans that have litmus tests. he believes in the big tent. governor dean, what do you think about fellow governor, former
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governor barbour? does he have a shot at winning the republican nomination? >> he might. he's probably the smartest guy running. and there's some smart people. you haven't talked about many of the smart people in the race yet but there's smart people on the other side. >> where are you from, man? vermont? you are such an elitist. >> well -- >> he's a bright, bright guy. he's run the party. which, of course, i'm partial to. and he knows when's going on. the problem is he presents himself as kind of a good old boy and probably great in mississippi. probably is not so good in some of the american states that you have to win in order to -- but you know, he is really bright and really understands politics better than anybody else talked about from 2012. >> what is your take on chris christie? >> he's -- too early. one of the big classic things about the republican party is to wait your turn.
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>> yeah. >> and he -- i would agree with all the things you said. i think he's making some really tough decisions. he comes across as a guy who's not unreasonable social right winger but it's just -- i think it is the republican party not the place for being insurgents. mike huckabee didn't get much further than the iowa primary. they tend to try to nominate the establishment candidates. >> he's right. they looked to the person next in line. mitt romney is a weak establishment candidate and makes it possible for a bunch of guys normally not next in line to maybe leapfrog over the tradition and get in there. >> be careful. a year and a half ago barack obama could walk on water. a year and a half from now he may be walking on water again. we know these things can change and the governor knows. it can change so quickly. >> john heilemann, harold ford
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jr., howard dean, thank you all very much. we'll be right back. [ woman ] nine iron, it's almost tee-time... time to face the pollen that used to make me sneeze... my eyes water. but now zyrtec®, the fastest 24-hour allergy relief, comes in a liquid gel. zyrtec® liquid gels work fast, so i can love the air®. step away from the internet. schedule no meetings. hold all your phone calls. for the next hour, there will be no agenda. marie callender's invites you back to lunch, with a new line of fresh recipes. like chicken teriyaki with crisp water chestnuts. it steams to perfection in minutes, giving the fresh flavors and textures of a homemade meal. marie's new steamed meals. it's time to savor.
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there's a lot of news of the week. >> don't ever bring -- >> don't get in my face.
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>> do not break up my family! >> number three, jersey fresh. >> you [ bleep ]. you [ bleep ]. >> while president obama worked this week to bring peace to the middle east, the two sides in the intractable conflict between teresa and danielle of "the real housewives of new jersey" appeared further apart than ever. >> you pig! she's a [ bleep ]. she [ bleep ] piece of garbage. >> i'm telling you. >> she's a [ bleep ] [ bleep ]. >> a reunion show meant to serve as a safe place for the healing to begin served only to enflame ancient table-flipping hostilities between the rival factions. >> you [ bleep ] stupid [ bleep ]. >> in other reality tv news out of the garden state -- >> stop! >> snooki's boyfriend of two weeks proposed to her by going shirtless and bended neon "stepping out."
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just the way every little girl dreams it will happen. >> i found an amazing gorilla juice head. >> number two, the smoking baby kicks the habit. child welfare officials in indonesia announced this week that the 2-year-old baby famous around the world for smoking two packs a day had quit after weeks of therapy. the toddler's father taught him to calm the boy down. kind of like a poisonous tar-laden tobacco binky. the next challenge, getting the kid off the sauce. and the number one story of the week -- >> together, they are the young guns. >> in an insult to es te vez, sutherland and especially to lou diamond phillips, three republican members of the house of representatives dubbed themselves this week the young guns.
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a dramatic, new ad that looks either like a tooth paste commercial or a trailer far movie you would never see has the three assembling a conservative posse to take on the outlaws of big government. >> and the new team is ready to bring america back. >> at least one former republican young gun was not inspired to saddle up and ride. >> get the cheese. oh! >> pure cheese whiz, man. >> that's awful. >> laugh it up, scarborough. there's a new sheriff in town. three of them, actually. >> a new generation of conservative leaders. >> young guns. >> and our big story here at "morning joe," outside that top three, is our own young gun pete breen, senior producer, with us from day one, the heart and soul -- the song, sorry about the song. the heart and soul of the show.
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pete, we are going to miss you. wanted to pay a little tribute. >> pete breen, b-r-e-e-n did not inform you. al, pete's fault complete. ♪ thank you for being a friend." ♪ traveled down the road and back again ♪ >> pete? pete? >> we'll see. >> no. >> did he say that to me? >> if you show those pictures in the next hour, you are so fired. >> pete, if you don't show those pictures this hour, you are fired. >> a lot of people said that i was a poor man's willie geist. >> a year without sex. >> pete breen said my first year of marriage. >> no. >> hates the military. >> hate it is military. >> loves little ponies. >> well, our ace summer intern jimmy breen collecting e-mails. an intern. jimmy breen. >> pete.
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whatever. this is a text that came in. do you exfol nate? your skin looks smooth. i drank coffee waiting for our daughter to get out. the caffeine kicked in at 5:00 a.m. >> how good was what show? >> this is for tease. and not the story which means his polite way of saying go to break. he doesn't swear and yell like chris does and threaten to punch people in the face like chris does. ♪ i don't want to lose you now ♪ we're going to get through somehow ♪ >> we should point out that pete breen hand picked the music for that piece. >> waiting forever to get those songs on. >> mike barnicle never did learn your name. we love you. miss you. >> just down the hall. still around. not as early. >> we are never going to see you again. >> never again. never again. >> greener pastures, pete, we love you.
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see you down the road. coming up next, what did we learn today? into the gulf for weeks, but it's just the beginning of our work. i'm iris cross. bp has taken full responsibility for the clean up in the gulf and that includes keeping you informed. my job is to listen to the shrimpers and fishermen, hotel and restaurant workers and find ways to help. that means working with communities. we have 19 centers in 4 states. we've made over 120,000 claims payments, more than $375 million. we've committed $20 billion to an independent claims fund to cover lost income until people impacted can get back to work. we'll keep looking for oil, cleaning it up if we find it and restoring the gulf coast. i was born in new orleans. my family still lives here. bp is gonna be here until the oil is gone and the people and businesses are back to normal... until we make this right.
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♪ you've got a friend in me it is brian with a hearty congratulations. we hired you at msnbc to do a vital and very important and dicey job. you were often the first person every day to see mike barnicle first thing in the morning.
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it is not easy. not everyone can do it. i've known you for a long time. folks at home don't know you started out with me as a kid. we took a big chance on you. that work release program out of the state prison. i was there when you met the woman who would become mrs. petpete ty breen. it's been an incredible career and now the next step. bigger and brighter things. slightly more sleep. not much. you'll get that when you're ready. you can sleep later. we're all better for this. the "today's" gain is msnbc's loss. congratulations, my friend. ♪ you're miles and miles from your nice warm bed ♪ >> i thought you were going to law school. >> we'll see how it works out. >> yeah. a lot of people don't know.